self-custody adoption is fragmenting basis compression

Useful frameworks survive longer than seasonal slogans.

Ignoring compliance tooling because funding rates looks exciting is how late-cycle mistakes compound.

Put beside current chatter on “CFTC Reportedly Warns Kalshi of Charges Over Prediction Market Launches,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Historically, stretches where self-custody adoption leads without support from developer activity invite sharper reversals.

Most blow-ups start as comfortable consensus.

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