cycle psychology is the overlooked driver of med — basis trades is underpricing treasury po

In practice, cycle psychology and open interest interact before price fully reflects either one.

That debate sits next to today’s market focus around “HYPE Falls 18% in a Week, Lagging Bitcoin and Ether.”

Treat cross-exchange spreads as the constraint and order-book depth as the amplifier, not the other way around.

Stay close to what users and balance sheets are actually doing.

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