rate-cut expectations is testing conviction in short-term positioning

Most blow-ups start as comfortable consensus.

Historically, stretches where options skew leads without support from spot ETFs invite sharper reversals.

Put beside current chatter on “Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.2 and Mythos 5.0 Are Impressive, But Be Prepared to Sell a Kidney to Afford Them,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Ignoring rate-cut expectations because institutional desks looks exciting is how late-cycle mistakes compound.

Treat rate-cut expectations as the constraint and institutional desks as the amplifier, not the other way around.

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